The Whiplash Index

Where the economy stands vs the story being told about it · updated September 28, 2026
SWEET SPOT DENIAL shrinking, story says fine RUNNING HOT growing, but overhyped DESPAIR shrinking, story too gloomy UNDERRATED growing, story too gloomy Real economy (private data): shrinking ← → growing Story vs reality: too gloomy ← → too hot Q4 '23Q3 '24Q2 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26 NOW (Sep 28)
✓ good for the economy ✕ bad for the economy • neutral fact

What it says right now

  • The reading sits just past the middle: a roughly flat economy, a hot story
  • Freight volumes are growing again after a long slump
  • Small businesses are still cutting workers and hours

What just changed

  • Long-term borrowing costs broke above 5%, the highest since 2007
  • Oil climbed back near $100 and diesel hit a record at the pump
  • Consumer confidence fell sharply
  • Stocks remain near record highs, led by technology

What we are waiting on

  • Whether long-term rates keep climbing or fall back below 5%
  • Fresh monthly numbers on jobs, small-business hours, and freight
  • Whether the central bank raises rates again this fall

The bottom line: borrowing costs broke a long-watched line, fuel prices are squeezing budgets, and confidence is slipping, yet the economy still reads flat rather than falling. The gap between the hot story and the private data stays wide.

How it is measured

The left-right position comes only from private data: freight volumes, restaurant traffic, and private labor readings, mapped so the middle means a flat economy. The up-down position is the “extension” reading, like an RSI for the economic story: how far the official numbers AND market prices are running from what the private data shows. It blends the gap between official and independent inflation measures, whether official and private jobs data point the same direction, and whether stocks and credit are priced for the economy the private data describes. The path shows quarterly averages over a 3-year window. Data referenced: Cass Freight Index, Truflation, BLS CPI, ICE BofA high-yield spreads (via FRED), S&P 500. Informational and educational only; not investment advice.